tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-48301607025074942982024-03-05T22:07:44.120-05:00 Robert M. Petry, CFA, CAIA Global Risk, Macro Analysis, & Alternative ThinkingBob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-33829536808154246112013-04-19T16:26:00.000-04:002013-12-20T16:27:48.398-05:00Hiatus<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtzz_bivJ-Jq-GmcQMmcVK9h_jo4TcUqGeu-69QadOtr8natF3cNiPl9Y5eTRpCwe3B0bdORxLCXRCBNXBHYyd5mQ9qKE3iRLMiSt0kSsXwU0Arl6CI_xC-LpLZzP6vfo5z4rg4foL56M/s1600/welcome_photo.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" gua="true" height="111" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtzz_bivJ-Jq-GmcQMmcVK9h_jo4TcUqGeu-69QadOtr8natF3cNiPl9Y5eTRpCwe3B0bdORxLCXRCBNXBHYyd5mQ9qKE3iRLMiSt0kSsXwU0Arl6CI_xC-LpLZzP6vfo5z4rg4foL56M/s200/welcome_photo.JPG" width="200" /></a>I've been busy lately planning for my upcoming wedding in Rio de Janeiro. It is pretty clear that my Brazilian bride is going to need me fully engaged. As such the planning process is taking up much of my free time. I'm going to have to cut back on a lot of activities. Blogging will have to take a back seat for now. Hopefully I can resume again in the not too distant future. </div>
Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-15270366586899491082013-03-08T12:16:00.002-05:002013-03-08T12:16:56.968-05:00Past Couple of Weeks on TwitterI have been traveling lately for work and unable to keep on the weekly twitter re-posts. So this week's update will clear some of the backlog.
<p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>The Real Reason Boomers Buy Bonds <a href="http://t.co/Y9bhQMqT" title="http://zite.to/12ZZllb">zite.to/12ZZllb</a> via @<a href="https://twitter.com/zite">zite</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/303713753445310464">February 19, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Fascinating <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23qwafafew">#qwafafew</a> talk tonight on behavioral analytic feedback for portfolio managers.</p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/304029718812971009">February 20, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Keep us posted on what happens March 5th. “@<a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry">rpetry</a>: Some in Congress are starting to get it --<a href="http://t.co/efUIEFAvrY" title="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/126584517/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-tvc89ac1mfeqq8al2b4">scribd.com/embeds/1265845…</a>”</p>— Hồng Loan (@hongloan) <a href="https://twitter.com/hongloan/status/305925093421371392">February 25, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>A Bitcoin for Your Thoughts <a href="http://t.co/W0A9L8leu1" title="http://bit.ly/Z46DPr">bit.ly/Z46DPr</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/307494090625409024">March 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Hope history is rhyming, not repeating-- Dangerous Times: How Euro-socialism Set off a Fascist Bomb <a href="http://t.co/TVR03y1GFi" title="http://zite.to/YFXGtJ">zite.to/YFXGtJ</a> via @<a href="https://twitter.com/zite">zite</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/307859133141483521">March 2, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Only with fiat money is Fed needed & fails miserably-- Debunking the Myths about Central Banks <a href="http://t.co/c3AHquYwsA" title="http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/debunking-myths-about-central-banks">cato.org/publications/c…</a> via @<a href="https://twitter.com/catoinstitute">catoinstitute</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/307932906276388864">March 2, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Open Source Finance 1. QuantLib - An Interview with Luigi Ballabio <a href="http://t.co/hryFhNjlvP" title="http://zite.to/XMGvKM">zite.to/XMGvKM</a> via @<a href="https://twitter.com/zite">zite</a> -Should be something to keep an eye on.</p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/308341989638811649">March 3, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Hackers Pull Off $12,000 Bitcoin Heist <a href="http://t.co/cMGnojdoi3" title="http://bit.ly/VLQ6lG">bit.ly/VLQ6lG</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/309770287438786560">March 7, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-54972389090453978152013-02-18T19:19:00.000-05:002013-02-18T19:19:00.340-05:00This Week on Twitter<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Great CS analysis of equities in a world of low real-rates and inflation effects.<a href="http://t.co/uuhLAEAz" title="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/124781629/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll">scribd.com/embeds/1247816…</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/300953759666810880">February 11, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Recreating the Asset Bubble:The Fed's Plan for Economic Recovery (see bottom graph on net worth/GDP) <a href="http://t.co/tEvhxi3z" title="http://bastiat.mises.org/2013/02/recreating-the-asset-bubble-the-feds-plan-for-economic-recovery/">bastiat.mises.org/2013/02/recrea…</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/301305880341782528">February 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Looks Like You Sent in the Wrong Gold! <a href="http://t.co/BQRf303w" title="http://chzb.gr/158RJfR">chzb.gr/158RJfR</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/301329788872830976">February 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>How A Rookie Excel Error Led JPMorgan To Misreport Its VaR For Years <a href="http://t.co/Pim9ihld" title="http://bit.ly/UaApUb">bit.ly/UaApUb</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/301393866286833665">February 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Greenspan saying equity prices driving the economy more than fiscalstimulus <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23bsasmarketdinner">#bsasmarketdinner</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/301476581426216960">February 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Greenspan on gold: human interest in gold is ubiquitous and makes no sense # bsasmarketdinner</p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/301484988786962432">February 13, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Greenspan on gold: only medium of exchange not requiring counter signature or credit <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23bsasmarketdinner">#bsasmarketdinner</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/301485405163900928">February 13, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>I think Greenspan just said "debt com bubble." I'm going to use that brilliance! <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23bsasmarketdinner">#bsasmarketdinner</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/301486211242004480">February 13, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Best quick summary of Austrian Business Cycle Theory I have read: "Recession Don't Do List" - <a href="http://t.co/G8K7CzK6" title="http://mises.org/daily/6366/Recessions-The-Dont-Do-List">mises.org/daily/6366/Rec…</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/303526907889201154">February 18, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-87386080841914047652013-02-08T13:25:00.001-05:002013-02-08T14:43:45.094-05:00This Week on TwitterThis week on Twitter Sam Jones at the FT gives us a good overview of domiciling your private fund in Cayman Islands. While this is a very popular option and is often the path of least resistance, there are downsides. There just are not enough directors in the Caymans to adequately service such a popular industry. Directors can end up on so many funds that no one is effectively looking out for investor interests. Mr. Jones goes over a nice history of how we got here, what the future may hold, and at the end briefly summarizes some alternative to the Caymans.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>"We like the place... because it is suitably devoid of law.”<a href="http://t.co/KGN1D0X5" title="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a35051d8-710a-11e2-9d5c-00144feab49a.html">ft.com/cms/s/0/a35051…</a> My piece on Cayman and offshore secrecy.</p>— Sam Jones (@samgadjones) <a href="https://twitter.com/samgadjones/status/299929962931187712">February 8, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Also on Twitter, Mark Mobius goes over the rising boom in commodities and how that will benefit the emerging market investor. But he warns not all areas of every emerging market will benefit equally and top returns will go to smart, hard-working, active investors.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>It’s unlikely all <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23commodities">#commodities</a> will see the same demand growth; the trick is to identify which correlate to trends. <a href="http://t.co/FC8T2Pke" title="http://s.frk.com/11W9ryz">s.frk.com/11W9ryz</a></p>— Mark Mobius (@MarkMobius) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkMobius/status/299931489364238336">February 8, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-83414964425295634702013-02-06T19:41:00.000-05:002013-02-08T16:43:43.880-05:00From the Village: The Prisoner<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPhXGfJbEG7S1Vt6xAS8G8gohesxYJSsGuFOEKpEKlEbEGlP3ANOSaz76OSHp5LWNcZ10hgU-SdVM_M70R98AaP_3QCQYQbo6xTkx09BkZ526AzlmE44DWzEBelDXxmvtBU13o3lDdwPw/s1600/prisonercover.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="177" width="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPhXGfJbEG7S1Vt6xAS8G8gohesxYJSsGuFOEKpEKlEbEGlP3ANOSaz76OSHp5LWNcZ10hgU-SdVM_M70R98AaP_3QCQYQbo6xTkx09BkZ526AzlmE44DWzEBelDXxmvtBU13o3lDdwPw/s320/prisonercover.jpeg" /></a></div>
On a more personal note, my fiancé has been doing a lot sales traveling lately. And while I do miss her, the upside is that I get to watch my TV shows for a change. One of my favorites that I have been re-watching is the old “<a href="http://www.sixofone.org.uk/">Prisoner</a>” series. Patrick McGoohan’s defining work (he not only starred, but conceived, produced, and head-wrote) takes off right where his old show “Danger Man” (Also known as ”Secret Agent” here in the US) abruptly left off. Wether “The Prisoner” is a sequel to “Danger Man” is never truly resolved.
<br><br>
Like the more modern show “Lost,” “The Prisoner” is set on a surreal island. McGoohan has no idea how he got there and all his attempts at escape are thwarted. Unlike “Lost,” “The Prisoner” uses hip, mod stylings to send up a very libertarian message about the relationship of the individual to civil society. Just what are the limits to liberty and how are they reconciled with the needs of the institution? All the visual cues for a modern social(ist) utopia permeate the show but they don’t fit McGoohan’s sensibilities as a free man.
<br><br>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP2B7GilhUxSkbOib3ShtBMxoaoE2b1-JtFihpUGG0f8TXeVU1Crj1d4Iu5YEUlWT0EzQmUNYzZ69I6WudQ_TqrV_sNbBuoXJp1V9N40yyEbhXUoL0XZAa2VdOL8fCKb1cvZzg00nCQxs/s1600/6.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear:right; float:right; margin-left:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="262" width="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP2B7GilhUxSkbOib3ShtBMxoaoE2b1-JtFihpUGG0f8TXeVU1Crj1d4Iu5YEUlWT0EzQmUNYzZ69I6WudQ_TqrV_sNbBuoXJp1V9N40yyEbhXUoL0XZAa2VdOL8fCKb1cvZzg00nCQxs/s320/6.jpeg" /></a></div>
In true collectivist fashion, McGoohan’s character is only ever referred to as “Number 6.” We never really learn his true identity. Is he really still Agent Drake from “Danger Man?” One series followed right where the other left off. As Johnny Rivers sang in the opening have they finally “given him a number and taken ‘way his name?” The mystery of personal identity and what it means is a theme that flows through each episode.
<br><br>
The show always starts with a montage of McGoohan quitting his government agent job in a heated dispute. His resignation is processed by a Kafka-esque bureaucracy. McGoohan’s new independence threatens an un-named institution. (Possibly his old employer? Maybe Danger Man’s enemies?) They gas and kidnap him, depositing him in The Village on an unusual island. In each episode he wakes to be questioned by a shadowy figure.
<br>
<blockquote>#6: “Where am I?”
<br>Voice: “In the Village.”
<br>#6: “What do you want?”
<br>Voice: “In-for-mation.” ... “We want in-for-mation.”...
<br>#6: “Who are you?”
<br>Voice: “The new number two.”
<br>#6: “Who is number one?”
<br>Voice: “You are (slight pause) number 6.”
<br>#6: “I AM NOT A NUMBER! I AM A FREE MAN!”
</blockquote><br>
Does Number Two want Six to give up state secrets or valuable data? Is Number Two really looking for information? Or is Number Two so wired into the collective, is his individuality so far lost, that he only wants what the others want? Are his desires in unity with the others: do they all want in formation? Is the real goal here to get Number Six to conform with the collective and think properly? When Number Two pauses in his answer about Number One, is he being evasive or did he insert a comma? Think about how that changes the meaning of the response. Who is really responsible for, or in charge of, Number Six?
<br><br>
The episodes then continue with Six’s newest escape plan. He struggles with his own identity against the pressures of near absurd conformity. A battle of wills invitably leads to a mental defeat of Two. But even with Two defeated, Six’s control over his own escape proves ever illusory and he remains trapped on the island.
<br><br>
My favorite episode would be “<a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/tv-season/the-general/id336608727?i=337052149">The General.</a>” Curiously, it is episode number 6 in the series. There is enough going on in that one episode to fill another blog post. So I think we will leave that for a future time.
<br><br>
In its heyday I could never really get into “Lost,” probably because I’ve seen “The Prisoner.” I know how good that format can be and how the show can really be about something. If you’re not familiar with the series, do yourself a favor and rent a few episodes. They are definitely worth your time.
<br><br>
Be seeing you.
Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-87453652781197034162013-02-03T18:19:00.000-05:002013-02-08T13:33:30.215-05:00This Week on Twitter<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>A good walk through of central bank gold leasing, how it works plus implications for gold, money and the economy.<a href="http://t.co/lP2qOpEL" title="http://www.internationalman.com/global-perspectives/the-disappearing-gold#.UQppjdsNjZQ.twitter">internationalman.com/global-perspec…</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/296965459176210433">January 31, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Surprised those most entrenched in preserving status quo now interested in "resilient dynamism." Maybe due to cameras in Davos?@<a href="https://twitter.com/vpostrel">vpostrel</a></p>— Robert Petry (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/294949088485584896">January 25, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-53318011052361606972013-01-25T10:27:00.003-05:002013-02-08T17:00:06.911-05:00This Week on Twitter<br />
A recap of my twitter account this past week.<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
US Mint Out Of Silver Coins - Suspends Sales. After only 2 weeks they are out of inventory. Plan resuming in 2 weeks. <a href="http://t.co/dTUb9UMX" title="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/us-mint-out-silver-coins-suspends-sales">zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-1…</a><br />
— Robert Petry, CFA (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/292262126637170689">January 18, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Great exposition on exactly what the debt ceiling is and more importantly is not.<a href="http://t.co/Teop1SXG" title="http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2013/01/two-cents-on-trillion-dollar-coin-and.html?m=1">johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2013/01/two-ce…</a><br />
— Robert Petry, CFA (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/293125162088423425">January 20, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
@<a href="https://twitter.com/timharford">timharford</a> dynamism: pirates redistribute based on max profit with less waste using current (not historic) wants & real price disciplines<br />
— Robert Petry, CFA (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/293413795450208256">January 21, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Possibly Interesting Dodd-Frank book? Authors claim law lays the groundwork for next big financial crisis. <a href="http://t.co/ThY3vFey" title="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00AWSF384/ref=tsm_1_fb_lk">amazon.com/dp/B00AWSF384/…</a><br />
— Robert Petry, CFA (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/293474679564419073">January 21, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Bernanke circa '07: "We are not in the business of bailing out individuals or businesses." <a href="http://t.co/gSXSUPfM" title="http://on.wsj.com/SeLQt5">on.wsj.com/SeLQt5</a><br />
— Nin-Hai Tseng (@ninhaitseng) <a href="https://twitter.com/ninhaitseng/status/292338042952355840">January 18, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Bitcoin-funded online casino turned a $572,000 profit after six months of operation <a href="http://t.co/5Uc7wKJK" title="http://bit.ly/UUyFw9">bit.ly/UUyFw9</a><br />
— Robert Petry, CFA (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/294152940703338496">January 23, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-89450440476895639272013-01-22T19:49:00.000-05:002013-02-08T16:56:58.847-05:00A Favorite Resource: R-Bloggers<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF024ncmQkmjfUTS0lpiXEfWCplzzV_JObp9EMnGNSjGEHW7Ue7dOKdAteWhnM-1pkjU7yIr87KzzgiI1KQW8aFLtBy0L2GtgLhKcekLouFJGsRpbuNV4YvnqSg5Y5d_jLzi0_Pi95yKc/s1600/Rlogo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="76" width="100" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF024ncmQkmjfUTS0lpiXEfWCplzzV_JObp9EMnGNSjGEHW7Ue7dOKdAteWhnM-1pkjU7yIr87KzzgiI1KQW8aFLtBy0L2GtgLhKcekLouFJGsRpbuNV4YvnqSg5Y5d_jLzi0_Pi95yKc/s320/Rlogo.jpg" /></a></div>
I have programmed professionally in several languages over the course of my career. These include: Vision, C++, visual basic, S-plus, SAS, perl, various scripting languages, and certain proprietary languages. But when I am at home, my default language is typically <a href="http://www.r-project.org">R</a>.
<br><br>
I enjoy using R in my personal projects primarily for three semi-interrelated reasons. First the similarity between R and S-plus makes R easy to learn and comfortable to use. Second of course is R's unbelievably low price. And third, because of the first two reasons, there is a large and robust community of support. There are a tremendous number of modules, plugins and examples available on the web for such things as time-series analysis, advanced statistics, and good object-oriented design techniques.
<br><br>
<a name='more'></a>One of the best repositories of good R-related news, help, tips, and other resources is <a href="http://http://www.r-bloggers.com/">R-bloggers</a>. For example, I re-used a piece of code given in this post titled <a href="http://www.r-bloggers.com/r-code-yahoo-finance-data-loading/">"R-Code Yahoo Finance Data Loading."</a> Of course, I had to modify it in order to use it as part of my staging proces for downloading data from some of the various emerging markets in which I am interested. (I am finding that one of the nice changes in today's information-driven world is that some of the markets I am building models for are very interested in attracting investors by providing a lot of free data.) Similarly useful, was a post on how to <a href="http://www.r-bloggers.com/pull-yahoo-finance-key-statistics-instantaneously-using-xml-and-xpath-in-r/">Pull Yahoo Finance Key-Statistics Instantaneously Using XML and XPath in R.</a>
<br><br>
These examples obviously were not a perfect match for my needs, but they did jumpstart my process. I was much faster at planning and executing the code because of R-bloggers. I have also gleaned a number of other good ideas on R coding techniques from them. So R-bloggers has now become a site I monitor fairly regularly. Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-20733159690108877312013-01-18T06:48:00.000-05:002013-02-08T16:53:15.217-05:00This Week on TwitterOne of the new changes around here will be a weekly update or summary of my activity on twitter. Since this is the initial post of this series, I am actually going to include the past two weeks here. While one could alway venture to my twitter page, or follow me directly on twitter to see some of my current thoughts, I think having them incorporated into the blog will prove beneficial. It will create one centralized place where a reader can learn more about me. After all, centralizing and conveying my ideas is a main purpose of this blog.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Why Workers Are Losing the War Against Machines <a href="http://t.co/YXCTH8eW" title="http://zite.to/ViwtgL">zite.to/ViwtgL</a> via @<a href="https://twitter.com/zite">zite</a></p>— Robert Petry, CFA (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/285378171581390848">December 30, 2012</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Bernanke winning as we all pile into more risk: Margin Debt Soars To 2008 Levels As Everyone Is "All In", <a href="http://t.co/p7j18HLY" title="http://zite.to/12P0UAP">zite.to/12P0UAP</a></p>— Robert Petry, CFA (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/285381706096197632">December 30, 2012</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Copernicus">#Copernicus</a> correctly understood that debasement of money was a main reason for the fall of a state <a href="http://t.co/PmueXUEU" title="http://bit.ly/S7TQNS">bit.ly/S7TQNS</a>. Same today in U.S.</p>— Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) <a href="https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/status/287033188281352194">January 4, 2013</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>New edition of 1984 will feature a "censored" blacked out cover <a href="http://t.co/yuSmWv3T" title="http://bit.ly/UNMWeL">bit.ly/UNMWeL</a></p>— Robert Petry, CFA (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/288298386715713538">January 7, 2013</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="http://t.co/1d1qjOL0" title="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-16/founding-father-of-the-quants-was-revolutionary-marxist-echoes.html">bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-1…</a>interesting article on the Quants Marxist roots</p>— Robert Petry, CFA (@rpetry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rpetry/status/291670576207118336">January 16, 2013</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-13517907088343692982012-12-30T21:25:00.002-05:002013-01-25T12:02:02.364-05:00Reboot!With a new year I think it is a good time to try to revive this blog. A lot of changes in my personal life combined with new challenges provided by the Dodd-Frank legislation and an overdose of perfectionism conspired to thwart some of my blogging efforts over the past year. But with a revived commitment and some new ideas, I think the changes I have in store for this site will be positive. Stay tuned for version 2.0 of the blog.<br />
<br />Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-87693992247525982022011-09-03T12:06:00.000-04:002011-09-04T19:28:30.500-04:00Deeper Into the Black Box?<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.ai-class.org/" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGeKEcGEyl1Tdgeo6Au6fZeLVcogLwuGr7jCJHwA6_Idk9FD9LnQWCRj7_YbCaM98QhmHEx4eYcCQPY0aHsmtrCpdH7jQQDZMixz7qHj-BgwBuAgxEuRY-EnluXDEDg4mw6JnJU6pjQr0/s1600/ai_head_small.jpg" /></a>Stanford University is offering their class <a href="http://ai-class.com/">Computer Science 221:</a> An Introduction to Artificial Intelligence online this fall. They are also making the class open to anyone and the best part is: it is all totally free. (Although there is an optional text book to buy.) The class will be team taught by Stanford professor Sebastian Thrun and Google's Peter Norvig, two leaders in the field. I am excited for this class both for its <a href="http://robots.stanford.edu/cs221/online.html">content</a> and also for what this kind of format portends for the future of global education.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Importance</h3>
<br />
A good friend and workout buddy of mine, Olin, has in the past year become a huge evangelist for A.I. He has an excellent <a href="http://www.ai-one.com/2011/08/24/artificial-intelligence-for-everyone/">post on his corporate blog</a> about why everyone needs to take this class. And I agree. It used to be that only a small group used computers to manage funds, now nearly every successful investor incorporates some level of quant screening into either the alpha or risk process. As those screen become more sophisticated, no doubt some level of A.I. will sneak in. Olin also makes an interesting observation about re-educating programmers to teach the computer. It reminds of my early days in the industry as a consultant working objects before they were ubiquitous. (I would argue that that they are still rarely used to their full potential.) I would spend a lot of time teaching quants to think less in a process-driven way and to program more naturally. Trust the computer handle lower-level tasks like iteration. Focus instead on tying solid economic theories to investment outcomes.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>I have often said about quant investing that one does not do what the computer says, in actuality, one tells the computer what to do. Properly coded investment algorithms need not be black boxes. They can provide full transparency to the investor. At first blush, A.I. systems may apear to be a darker black box as the programmer cedes some control over how exactly each step of the program will progress. But upon further reflection I am now convinced that a properly set up A.I. system, like any good traditional quant algorithm, can shine a light on data. It should be possible to use A.I. to add a deeper understanding of data and patterns. And thus it should ultimately prove to be a better tool for transforming information into both wisdom and effective action.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Do It</h3>
<br />
This will be the next wave of data analysis. I have already enrolled. I hope you will too. The class starts in October, but you should <a href="http://www.ai-class.com/registration">enroll</a> now. Let me know if you sign up and I will see you in class.<br />
<br />
Bonus: Stanford is also offering <a href="http://www.ml-class.org/">CS229</a>: Machine Learning and<a href="http://www.db-class.org/"> CS145</a>: Introduction to Databases this fall. Both are also free and online.<br />
<br /></div>
Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-19100542459226657092011-08-26T16:48:00.019-04:002011-08-30T16:17:02.094-04:00Easy Money (well, euros anyway)Yesterday, European regulators extended the ban on short selling financial stocks in four countries: France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium. The ban was started on August 12 despite any highly unusual shorting activity up until that time. The ban was originally slated to run for 15 days, expiring today. The extension will run until 11/11/11 for France and September 30 for the other countries, barring any further extensions. While these actions will not stop the slide of European financials, they will highlight the incompetence of European financial regulators. The supposed leaders of the financial markets have thrown up their hands in dismay and cried “Uncle!” almost ensuring that markets will tank by undermining investor confidence. One does not often see a government signal to the world that it has no idea what to do about its economy. It is almost as if their plan is to place a “Please, don’t kick me.” sign on the back of their weakest members.<br />
<br />
<h3>The Theory: Mechanics & Risks</h3><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixEVmUsAjqDIT4VEpOYe0v1yAIXDzhT66lS9eYFhvA5OkUi79LPG8kupTBby8gLS8UWAo1W4-hkNAjZIEQq0Jq53G2SvSPRXNbagY8IhqHWf-I10o6bx9tKVbcdM64feObl3KB098rgLk/s1600/XLF+post+ban.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="131" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixEVmUsAjqDIT4VEpOYe0v1yAIXDzhT66lS9eYFhvA5OkUi79LPG8kupTBby8gLS8UWAo1W4-hkNAjZIEQq0Jq53G2SvSPRXNbagY8IhqHWf-I10o6bx9tKVbcdM64feObl3KB098rgLk/s200/XLF+post+ban.jpg" width="200" /></a>The short sale bans do not work (the top chart shows the US ban from 8/08) mainly because the underlying company fundamentals (i.e. the value of the company) do not change, but also because today’s breadth of interconnected financial products makes it almost trivially easy to develop synthetic short positions. To create such a synthetic short one would look to build an arbitrage position but simply leave a hole where the banned security would otherwise fit in the portfolio. For example the most direct way to build a synthetic short here would be to short a European financials ETF and then use the proceeds to buy up the individual components, say German, Danish, and maybe Polish financials but not those from France, Italy, Spain or Belgium. The net effect is that one has a short exposure to securities that one is not technically allowed to short. The hitch is that everyone knows this and the European financials ETF becomes hard to borrow, driving up the costs. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp9WjZqd6iu1VfAqjitkxDX27eEYudom7CE3CYV8E4Z4vI0RHyTYO71Z3eVtz749DtalDnPmtcqGMN8UCOu9JtnDX_qSWB0vt8t_tBLtCEAzRxPBvxvB_Ae_l9lIiOe2sthqxFtBFqvvs/s1600/cds.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp9WjZqd6iu1VfAqjitkxDX27eEYudom7CE3CYV8E4Z4vI0RHyTYO71Z3eVtz749DtalDnPmtcqGMN8UCOu9JtnDX_qSWB0vt8t_tBLtCEAzRxPBvxvB_Ae_l9lIiOe2sthqxFtBFqvvs/s200/cds.png" width="200" /></a>So one could move to a broader index, say global financials or all of Europe, and then fill in more securities on the back side. While the borrowing costs may not be as high as one starts to get further away from the concentrated play, transactions costs rise and a bit of basis risk is introduced. To really minimize borrowing costs one could move into the futures and options markets, however this introduces other risks including roll risk from mismatched timelines. But make no mistake all of these risks are worth it. Another derivative strategy would be to use credit default swap spreads. This chart from <a href="http://pragcap.com/cds-market-to-euro-banks-this-is-worse-than-2008">Pragmatic Capitalism</a> shows CDS for large banks. One can see just how confident the market is that a short sale ban will work! </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><h3>The Research</h3><br />
A review of the academic literature backs up the theory. Evidence from the short sale ban of financials in the US in September 2008 suggests that these bans actually exaggerate the effect on the banned securities' prices and disrupt the orderly flow of markets. The net effect is that regulators remove liquidity, price discovery, and confidence exactly when the market needs it most. <a href="http://arturobris.com/">Arturo Bris</a>, for whom I once worked as a teaching assistant at Yale, has an excellent <a href="http://www.arturobris.com/eo/brisreportAug12.pdf">paper</a> where he demonstrates exactly this. Similarly he finds that short activity was not that high in the US at that time either. Arturo noticed that shorting typically happens after a fall in price and not before. So the short sellers definitely do not trigger the fall. Arturo suggests that this may be due to short sales being used as a hedging tool. Without the liquidity from shorts, these stocks become less efficient, reacting more slowly to news than usual. As liquidity dries up in the banned names, relative spreads increase. These conditions set the stage for larger impact costs on trades. In other words, sells may then seemingly have a bigger draw on prices than before the short ban - exactly the situation the regulators were purportedly trying to prevent.<br />
<br />
In a <a href="http://www.q-group.org/recently_completed_projects/SSRN-id1502184.pdf">paper</a> sponsored by the <a href="http://www.q-group.org/">Q-Group</a>, Beber and Pagano also studied short selling bans around the world. They found remarkably similar results. Although their price results on US financials were inconclusive, Beber and Pagano showed liquidity and price discovery to be much more inefficient during short selling bans. The biggest dislocations occurred for smaller cap stocks and stocks lacking traded options. Presumably, smaller cap stocks would make up small portions of ETFs or indexes, making the above trading techniques slightly more difficult. Obviously, lacking listed options further restricts the ability to place a synthetic short and would thus tend to increase dislocations. The authors even noted Chairman Chris Cox of the SEC on 12/31/08 said of the short selling ban on financials, “Knowing what we know now, I believe on balance the commission would not do it again. The costs appear to outweigh the benefits.”<br />
<br />
Fortunately the academic research does not uniformly paint regulators as complete idiots. <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=357800">Bris, Goetzmann,and Zhu</a> find that short selling bans may present less negative skew. While extreme negative pricing events may be just as common under restricted shorting, they seem to be of a slightly less severe magnitude. This finding seems to only apply to extreme events and not necessarily to an ordered retreat in prices. Of course they note that this mitigation of extreme pricing comes at the now familiar cost of market efficiency.<br />
<br />
<h3>The Implications</h3><br />
So while placing synthetic short bets on securities with short sale bans in place may not be a riskless enterprise, it is one which I feel more often than not, will turn out to be worth the risk. As we can see, the best way to implement such a strategy is not just to be faster than everyone else, but also to be large enough to absorb any transactions costs or slippage. Thus this may not be the strategy best suited to the little guy investor. So if regulators are teeing up easy opportunities to large institutional, or quasi-institutional, investors at the expense of average investors, whom are they really trying to protect? Just exactly where do the regulators' interests really lie?Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-72411730991378362372011-08-13T17:47:00.004-04:002011-09-05T11:07:47.521-04:00Finding Your Efficient Frontier<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOA4a5Iecj4MDJwFu_rFPuuKH38eELYruRdXTxCAnwIP6Hn1wmbgla24MGjtLSJyBzcuHZB9YX9MmVO5ULPsOERFfBe4OIW4IZPiXd8rLQXguAmLe_iS0beNzFi5ctiAdouhG44O8Ny8k/s1600/efficient+frontier.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="145" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOA4a5Iecj4MDJwFu_rFPuuKH38eELYruRdXTxCAnwIP6Hn1wmbgla24MGjtLSJyBzcuHZB9YX9MmVO5ULPsOERFfBe4OIW4IZPiXd8rLQXguAmLe_iS0beNzFi5ctiAdouhG44O8Ny8k/s200/efficient+frontier.jpeg" width="200" /></a>My friend and old colleague, Tom Anichini over at <a href="http://portfoliowizards.com/">PortfolioWizards.com</a>, has built a fantastic <a href="http://www.portfoliowizards.com/resources/">workbook</a> for locating the tangent portfolio on an efficient frontier. Tom’s workbook is based on using up to 20 asset classes, which should be more than twice enough for most models. However it should also not be too difficult to adapt the matrix functions and arrays to whatever number you need. The beauty of the workbook is the use of matrix functions which makes the sheet fast and intuitive to use. It is an excellent example of just how powerful Excel can be when you know both how to use it and the math behind the finance.<br />
<br />
To keep things fast, Tom abstracts away from returns forecasting and assumes a zero risk-free rate. The output is a series of portfolios broken down by expected volatility. Most investors typically treat the volatility of their portfolio as either a by-product of their investing, or, at best, as a secondary goal. That is if they pay attention to it at all. This is exactly the wrong way to think about structuring a portfolio. The risk component is every bit as important, and intimately tied to the return component.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
In recent times with these extraordinary low returns to capital, r<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><i>f</i></span>=0 may not be such a terrible assumption on Tom's part, but the lack of an expected returns component makes the workbook a little less than useful for tactical asset allocations or other serious work. That said, like all good quant tools, the efficient frontier workbook does a good job of providing information which may not necessarily be intuitive or obvious, in an easy to understand manner. It is this information when combined with the users experience, knowledge, and judgement that leads to insight. Wisdom can also be gained by varying the inputs to the workbook and running “what if” scenarios and sensitivity analysis.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.portfoliowizards.com/resources/blog/">Download</a> the workbook yourself and give it a try. After playing with it for a little while I have decided to add more REITs to my portfolio. So I am off to research some real estate funds.Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-55120599792739218442011-08-10T14:25:00.001-04:002011-09-03T12:11:44.078-04:00Win $20k with XBRLThe Wharton Research Data Services (<a href="https://wrds-web.wharton.upenn.edu/wrds/">WRDS</a>) and some partners are running a <a href="https://wrds-web.wharton.upenn.edu/wrds/news/index.cfm?method=read&news_id=245">contest</a> to see who can come up with the most inventive and useful application making use of <a href="http://xbrl.sec.gov/">XBRL</a>. The prize is $20,000. The catch is the winning application must be open-sourced.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.xbrl.org/Home/">XBRL</a> is the eXtensible Business Reporting Language: essentially an open meta-tag mark-up language for financials. Chairman Cox, when he was with the SEC, championed the use of XBRL to create the EDGAR database. A free database all publicly traded securities required data and an intuitive way to extract the data is a game changer for the investing industry. These advances vastly lower the barriers to entry for institutional quality analysis and should help improve price discovery and market efficiency over time. At least that is what should happen on the domestic side, hopefully someday international equivalents of EDGAR are not too far away.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>I have used XBRL in the past, pulling down insider filings from EDGAR and then parsing the data with perl scripts. I then combined that data into a corporate signalling model for small cap stocks. The whole process was surprisingly easy compared to the olden days of finding and paying for a data provider then writing and testing a custom loader. The most difficult part of the process was probably spending an afternoon figuring out what data was available, where it was, and when it was updated. Of course you only have to do that once. Now I'm sure there are nifty commercial applications that will put a spiffy GUI front-end onto the database for easier exploration and navigation. Likewise, I know there are commercial applications that will now alert you in real time when data you are interested in changes. But maybe a good open-source version would be an interesting entry to the competition. But what I think I would really like to see is an open-source Excel plug-in. <br />
<br />
More details of the <a href="http://xbrl.us/research/pages/challenge.aspx">challenge</a> are available at <a href="http://xbrl.us/">http://xbrl.us/</a> If you are interested, the deadline for submissions is January 31, 2012.Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-32412534307482092392011-08-08T14:21:00.005-04:002011-08-10T14:27:31.167-04:00This Time It's Different...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdN6V0DNAeEMMYT7iKNgyLrFj2tfhdReB8SM-KGAwj6YW2eXVfAe2Mec-GoCBbQjNBm9EJYEV4nclXqAoxkS-dZNCQOZxnEKAtY5l49Npzg8xp-VCa3PNTQ0dMqvyf-SXyMx7VobcH-eY/s1600/dtth.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" naa="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdN6V0DNAeEMMYT7iKNgyLrFj2tfhdReB8SM-KGAwj6YW2eXVfAe2Mec-GoCBbQjNBm9EJYEV4nclXqAoxkS-dZNCQOZxnEKAtY5l49Npzg8xp-VCa3PNTQ0dMqvyf-SXyMx7VobcH-eY/s200/dtth.jpg" width="132" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Around late 2000 or maybe 2001 I was sitting in a meeting listening to <a href="http://www.rba-llc.com/">Richard Bernstein</a> expound on his market sentiment indicator when he suggested I obtain a copy of <u><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Devil-Take-Hindmost-Financial-Speculation/dp/0374138583/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1312826334&sr=1-1">Devil Take the Hindmost</a>: A History of Financial Speculation</u> by Edward Chancellor to gain a better understanding of bubble manias, particularly the Internet bubble of the time. Well, Mr. Bernstein must have made that suggestion to a lot of people because by the time I heard about it, this 1999 book was already extremely difficult to find anywhere. Ten years later, after more bubbles have risen and burst, I spent a sunny lunch break leisurely wandering through my favorite outdoor used book seller, when I finally chanced upon a copy of this elusive book. Seeing the price knocked down to just three dollars, I had to obtain it.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Chancellor takes the name of his book from an old expression that the Devil will get anybody who is too slow. So you better hurry up and not be last. Something akin to what we used to say, "last one there is a rotten egg." In a financial strategy that is knowingly built on the "greater fool" theory, being the last one to sell as an asset's price is rising will be your ruin, or as an anonymous pamphleteer warned against the South Sea Bubble, "the Devil take the hindmost."<br />
<a name='more'></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Chancellor starts off in Rome 200 BC where they had all of the necessary ingredients for bubble formation including modern financial instruments and a culture of gaming. <br />
<br />
More to come...</div>Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4830160702507494298.post-5248751122903344402011-07-22T15:11:00.008-04:002013-01-25T12:01:40.897-05:003, 2, 1... Launch!<div class="entrybody">Welcome to my musings. <br />
<br />
I'm going to write about themes, trends, ideas generally, but not specific instances or cases. My posts will cover the past, present, and possibly future of investing in the alternative space, mostly focusing on hedge funds, with a special emphasis on risk.<br />
<br />
Obviously it should go without saying that the postings on this blog are my own and not those of my employer, are not necessarily reviewed in advance by my employer, and do not necessarily represent the positions, rulings or opinions of my employer or any one but me personally. Nothing on this site should be viewed as coming from or having anything to do with my employer. Obviously nothing on this site should be viewed in any way as any kind of legal or regulatory advice whatsoever. Specific items or knowledge gleaned from my employment that are not readily available publicly will not be discussed. <br />
<strong></strong><br />
<span class="post-author vcard"></span></div>Bob Petryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00331869135954116968noreply@blogger.com0